Republicans are looking good going into the midterm elections. Generic polls show them surging late. Individual polls show them doing well in a majority of races up and down the ballots. So far, the closest thing to an October Surprise on the national level has been the January 6 Unselect Committee voting to subpoena Donald Trump, and it’s unlikely that will move the needle in either direction.
But here’s the thing. Polls are not indicators of reality, at least not the way they’re used today. Polls are weaponized. They’re completely tilted, manipulated, and used to drive home narratives. The narrative they’re supposed to drive home is almost always a leftist one. And that doesn’t mean they always “favor” a Democrat candidate. They can use polls to make a certain candidate seem more vulnerable than they really are.
We shouldn’t listen to them, at least not how they’re presented. Assume the real margin of error on any given poll is at least 15-points. So if a candidate is down by 10-points, assume it’s possible for them to win. This has been demonstrated empirically in recent years, but I don’t think this audience needs me to prove it to them. You likely already understand that polls are weaponized and pollsters are just as devious as corporate media journalists or Big Tech “fact-checkers.”
In reality, the GOP as a whole and most candidates are very much in command of this election. It’s for that reason that anyone who supports Republican candidates should do everything in their power to not only vote (in person, of course) but to get as many friends and family to do the same. There are three major ways the election can be salvaged for the Democrats and all three are in play. We have to pretend like we’re about to be dealt a massive defeat and voting is the only way to extend the life of the United States of America.
Unfortunately, that’s not hyperbole. Here are three things to watch from now until November:
While many conservative publications have been busy telling how bad things are for Democrats’ prospects, there’s good and bad that goes along with the narrative. The good is that we need voters to be confident in their candidates. The bad is that if they think the red wave is inevitable, voters might not show up.
There’s a reason that every single GOP fundraising email I receive on a seemingly hourly basis is doom and gloom. “It’s Over for Me,” one subject line said. “I’m losing, another said. Dr. Mehmet Oz sent out an email this morning with the subject line of “Goodbye!”
Hope is important for morale, but fear drives action. We need to assume the worst and do what’s necessary to see the best.
A RINO-Induced October Surprise
If there’s an October Surprise still lurking from the Democrats, it’s getting awfully late in the game to unveil it. Unless it’s a bombshell they’re saving for the last minute, it’s a safe bet that they’ve played all their regular cards.
That doesn’t mean we won’t have an October Surprise coming from the OTHER group that doesn’t want many Republicans to win. As hard as it is for some to accept, Mitch McConnell does NOT want to be Senate Majority Leader unless he has HIS Senators backing him. If he’s loaded up with America First patriots in his caucus, he’d rather be Minority Leader. Seriously. This is why he’s ignoring Blake Masters in Arizona. It’s why he’s attacking Kelly Tshibaka in Alaska. It’s why he loves Dr. Oz.
It wouldn’t shock me if McConnell’s proxies, of which there are many, throw a wrench in the red wave that appears to be coming.
Voter Fraud Like 2020, Only Worse
Massive, widespread voter fraud is the biggest threat to the GOP. It’s going to happen. If you haven’t been completely gaslighted about 2020, you know it already happened once. It’s going to be worse in the midterms because it will be more widespread to account for enough races.
It’s extraordinarily important that we get as many eyes on the ballots as possible. I’ve considered making a trip to a vulnerable polling place to help out myself; there’s not much I can do locally in California. We’ll see. All I know is they’re going to try to repeat what happened in 2020 and the feckless RNC is doing nothing to prevent it.
The most important thing we can do to make sure a red wave is preserved is to get out our vote and any voters we can influence. America desperately needs the brakes slammed on the Democrats’ agenda and this election will determine how much closer to oblivion they’ll be able to take us.